What to prepare for business: distribution of Covid 19

The actual spread of the coronavirus Covid-19 in Russia. What to prepare for business? Why quarantine?

Nick Head of Sales

Printed 2017-03-20

Number of tests

A small number of identified cases may be associated not so much with the absence of a cut in Russia as with its lack of detection. If we correct not only the peak shift typical of all countries due to the incubation period (about 2 weeks), but also the insufficient number of tests, the forecast becomes much harsher. 

Number of ongoing tests per 1 million inhabitants

The real situation: the experience of China

It is important to understand that there is a long delay in estimating the number of infected people around the world. A small, it would seem, increase in confirmed cases suggests that the actual number of infected people has grown exponentially. 

Peak delay sick compared to the peak of detected diseases in Hubei Province (China)

Although the Chinese authorities were late in limiting the spread of infection, their measures slowed down the epidemic in all regions except Hubei. In other countries where measures were taken later, exponential growth is observed:

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The importance of quarantine: measures taken more or less on time (China) and the lack of necessary measures in Europe, Iran, South Korea

Quarantine

The above data indicate the need for urgent and widespread introduction of quarantine. High mortality from coronavirus is associated not only with the fact that it cannot be cured: the medical system of any country in the world (and especially Russia) is not ready for such volumes of cases. Here's how the number of people who don’t get help changes with timely action:

Number of people not receiving medical care (purple area), depending on the speed of quarantine measures

Difference in the number of cases when social contacts are limited with a delay of 1 day (red curve compared with green) and in the absence of restriction at all (black exponentials)

What to do Business

First, immediately restrict all contacts between the employees themselves. If possible, transfer everyone to a completely remote mode of operation. Replace appointments with skype calls and conferences. Explain to employees the importance of individual quarantine. 

Disseminate this data among your customers, partners and contractors: acting together, we will not only stop the spread of the epidemic, but also reduce the negative consequences for the economy and business. 

Data source: Tomas Pueyo